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The second round of games for CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying are set for this summer. The first round saw the 22 lowest ranked CONCACAF nations square off, dwindling the number of teams vying for 3.5 spots in World Cup 2010 from 35 to 24.
The second round features 12 two-legged matches between the top 12 ranked team in the federation vs. the survivors of round one. The winners the 12 matches are presorted into 3 four team groups for the next stage of qualifying.
As most American fans know, the US, baring upsets, is likely to be squared off against Cuba, Guatemala, and Trinidad & Tobago in the next stage. Group B should shake out to be Mexico, Jamaica, Honduras, and Canada. Group C is seeded to include Costa Rica, Guyana, Panama, and Haiti.
Upsets?
This is only the second time CONCACAF has used this format for WC qualifying. I'm sure I'm not the first to say it, but its freaking stupid. Prior to World Cup expansion to 32 teams starting in 1998, CONCACAF used a variety of methods to qualify its 1-2 bids (none of them were particularly great). Since the 1998 Qualifiers, CONCACAF has consistently used the 12 team, 3 group, semifinals, leading into a 6 team "league" format for the final qualifiers. This system is fine, and outside of the CONMEBOL 9 team super-league for qualifying, its probably one of the fairest and more exciting qualifiers in the world.
What I don't like about CONCACAF's qualifiers is how the first and second rounds are set up. For starter's I'm not generally a fan of any nation being able to be eliminated after just 2 games against the same opponent (and in the case of some first round matchups, 1 game, given that one nation didn't have a suitable ground). But what is absolutely absurd is that a nation that actually has a snowballs chance in hell of making it to South Africa could have their World Cup dreams squashed after just 180 minutes of soccer. That is absurd, yet, that is what could, at least in theory, happen to teams such as Trinidad and Tobago, Canada, Costa Rica, and yes, even the US and Mexico, this summer.
The odds of their being an epic upset (USA or Mexico going down) are somewhere between slim and none... but the chance still exists. Its not enough to cause any real concern, but its enough to get a slight bit queasy over the idea of the biggest upset in the history of world cup qualifying go against you.
In 2006 there were two second round upsets:
- St. Kitts and Nevis over Barbados
- Saint Vincent and the Grenadines over Nicaragua
Matchups:
Here are the 12 matchups for the second round of CONCACAF Qualifying. FIFA World Rankings (as of March, 2008) are in parenthesis.
Unless otherwise indicated, the first leg will be on June 14th, with the second leg on June 21st.
The team listed first will host the first leg.
Winners to Semifinal Group A United States (28) vs. Barbados (137) (First Leg June 15th at the Home Depot Center)
Guatemala (95) vs. Saint Lucia (185)
Trinidad and Tobago (93) vs. Bermuda (146)
Antigua and Barbuda (140) vs. Cuba (112)
Winners to Semifinal Group B
Belize (176) vs. Mexico (16)
Jamaica (103) vs. Bahamas (178)
Honduras (43) vs. Puerto Rico (168)
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (142) vs. Canada (62) (first leg June 15th)
Winners to Semifinal Group C
Grenada (157) vs. Costa Rica (72)
Suriname (155) vs. Guyana (113)
Panama (69) vs. El Salvador (128)
Haiti (97) vs. Netherlands Antilles (163)
Some Numbers:
Second Round matches ranked by how big of a mismatch they are (using March 2008 FIFA rankings)
- 160 - Mexico (16) vs. Belize (176)
- 125 - Honduras (43) vs. Puerto Rico (168)
- 109 - United States (28) vs. Barbados (137)
- 90 - Guatemala (95) vs. St. Lucia (185)
- 85 - Costa Rica (72) vs. Grenada (157)
- 80 - Canada (62) vs. St. Vincent and the Grenadines (142)
- 75 - Jamaica (103) vs. Jamaica (178)
- 66 - Haiti (97) vs. Netherlands Antilles (163)
- 59 - Panama (69) vs. El Salvador (128)
- 53 - Trinidad and Tobago (93) vs. Bermuda (146)
- 42 - Guyana (113) vs. Suriname (155)
- 28 - Cuba (112) vs. Antigua and Barbuda (140)
If you average the FIFA rankings of all of the top seed, you get the following:
Group A (USA, T &T, Guatemala, & Cuba) - 82 average
Group B (Mexico, Canada, Honduras, Jamaica) - 56 average
Group C (Costa Rica, Panama, Haiti, Guyana) - 87.75 average
now obviously FIFA rankings should be taken with a grain of salt, and Honduras at #43 in the world might be a bit generous, but Group B is clearly the toughest group in CONCACAF, and its not Mexico who should be pissed, they should be able to walk right through it. The nation that should be pissed is Canada. In the FIFA rankings, at #62 in the world, they are the 3rd ranked team in Group B, even though they are a higher ranked side than either of the 2nd place teams in Group A or C.
Based on their recent performances in the Gold Cup and in Olympic Qualifying, Canada could very well be a team that could challenge for the World Cup if they make it to the finals, but it won't be easy.
Predictions:
Not a whole lot to be said here... for the top teams this round SHOULD be a formality. There will probably be 1 upset somewhere, probably with the lower seeded teams. Cuba/Antigua and Barbuda might be an upset... I doubt these nations are THAT closely matched, but losing half of the U-23 team to defectors has to hurt the full senior squad... enough that US fans should probably wait a couple months before they start planing for back alley ways into Cuba to see the Yanks play.
I would use this space to type up my vast knowledge of Barbados and its soccer team, but since my Google image search of "Barbados Slim" (Hermes Conrad's arch-nemesis on Futurama) came up empty handed, I got nothing.
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